My honest thoughts about the Archimedes Delay! | We have to talk!

$19.56…….2030………. WTF !!!!

The longest lead item in a rocket program are the engines. By the look of archimedes development progress, i say Neutron NET 2028.

I’m a bit of an outlier here maybe, not having any financial background but coming from the space field. But I never accepted that Neutron would be seriously happening anytime soon to begin with. That’s Not a negative. First off, something to keep in mind: even if you are building a bigger rocket, but using the same propellants, Liquid rocket systems do NOT SCALE! Rule #1, Chapter 1, in the rocket propulsion handbook (I really think it is, by the way; don’t know where my old college textbook is, tho). Here, they are taking on a much bigger task: Much bigger rocket using Different propellant that is reusable first stage from the get-go- with a new engine. So to me, NOTHING IS BEHIND SCHEDULE. I’m sorry, folks; but it isn’t. PB had to set out something, particularly since he’s a public company. BUT, that’s why I gave you the Comment yesterday (which y’all ignored, but, it really is true): Development of brand new rocket systems- and Public companies- have Inherent inconsistencies. You- well, all of us!- would prefer it to Not be that way, but it is. There’s a reason SpaceX is still private, OK? It could NOT have gotten this far if it had become a public company any time in the last two decades. Seriously. And it needs to stay private. The ONLY thing Elon is even considering, is making Starlink public, because it is its own clear breakaway piece - NOW. BUT even Starlink- the only constellation to not have gone into bankruptcy; all others have- wouldn’t have gotten this far if he had taken it public years ago. As it is, we don’t even have the ‘real’ Starlink system yet; i.e., not a single, full-sized Starlink satellite has ever been launched; only Starlink mini’s, since full-sized vehicles require Starship. Personally speaking, I hope Elon holds off on making Starlink public until Starlink full-sized satellites make up the majority of the needed constellation. I believe Starship will start launching Starlinks next year; then the rapid build out of the planes will start in earnest the year after that, when they start launch Starships from Florida into more inclinations. - Dave Huntsman

Thanks for the update, things to think about 😊😊

Vince, you need to update your spreadsheet. N=6.5 years, not 7 years. That changes the annual return to 21.4%

Seriously, what are people thinking is going to happen to the stock price when RKLB eventually reports a successful Archimedes hot fire? Shouldn't the "news" already be baked into the price? It's not like this is going to be a surprise.

While it is interesting to compare the history of rocket development timelines of companies, to get a handle on what's wrong with Rocket Lab, why after 7 years and 50 launches, the stock price is stuck in the mud, in the $4 range, all year now. To me the answer is clear, as a RKLB shareholder and long time trader.
I would ask myself the question, what was Rocket Lab doing, when they should have been doing nothing but NEUTRON development, barring all distractions? Easy. They were vertically integrating the company BEFORE they had the "keys to Space" as Peter likes to say, to lift his dream constellation to orbit. Simple as that.
So, people, resources and BORROWED money is now stuck in delivering the Space Systems backlog for pennies on the dollar return, compared to $60 million per launch of a flying NEUTRON.
I continue holding my RKLB shares on the basis that the price will poke along through 2024 into 2025, and eventually Rocket Lab will have a medium launch rocket and then at last the price will rocket also.
In the mealtime, I watch the next likely IPO, Firefly, launching their #5 ALPHA, Monday evening from Vandenburg. They have a lot going for them. Besides the 25 launch deal signed June 5th with LOCKHEED MARTIN, they signed a deal last week to launch from Sweden, not only EU payloads, but also America-led NATO payloads, that would require a US DoD security-cleared rocket launcher, which is what Firefly is since 2022, when the US cleared out the "Ukrainian Connection", on the eve of Russia's war, and the respected, trusted, and able Bill Weber was appointed CEO, a Veteran combat officer of the US Armed Forces. Not only that, Firefly's MIRANDA engine for their upcoming, ANTARES 330 MLV medium launch rocket, is one of the US Gov's designated replacements for the outlawed {due to the war} Russian RD-180 engine.

They are probably going to announce the archimedes test on the day of q2 results… just how they revealed archimedes to us on the day of q1 results. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has happened already.

Stfu about bidenomics. You are ignorant about economics.

Well....Like SpaceX, there's real time and Beck time.🚀

@Vince, there are 2 main ways RKLB price can go up: #1 good earnings and #2 interest rate cuts.
Even if Rocket Lab earnings reports don't start to significantly improve until 2027, there's no way that interest rates will stay high until then. Rates will come down before then, and put us investors in a more comfortable position in the meantime, as we wait for earning to really get rolling. I expect first rate cut in September in 11 weeks. Also, Space Systems Division will likely be growing its revenues every quarter in the meantime.

Does Rocket Labs really need to be so opaque? Archimedes has been on the test stand for how long? Would be nice if RL gave some insights into the kinds of things it is doing. Is the integration with the test stand complex? Are they rethinking instrumentation on the fly? And what tests were done before it got to the test stand? Sooner or later you run out of useful tests and its time to set fire to something. And yes I get it that rockets take time, but once you've taken the time to run all the tests and do all the sims that you logically should do before mounting it on the stand, what is left?

Vince, can you please further clarify your numbers quoting $19.56 as the share price in 2030. I’m freaking out. Help.

Are you tempted by the all-time low on planetlab?

Let's see Vince. The part ''less'' complicate about Neutron, is in deed the engine, we know that, is a mature estructure of engine, we (humans) have it undercontrol. It's not going to work at 100% And if is full 3D printed, correct me, but if it don't works, is not junk, is material to melt again in the 3d printer horn, is not that waste of money. This is not like an old change factory that the product with some issues is literaly trasth and waste of money. I think really. I feel like on this proyect, the hard part is the rest of the rocktet. the estructure on maximun atmosferic stress, geting out, and getting in. Maybe in the reentry with the reignaited of the engine, but not before. That engine should not be a problem.

Vince. Great analysis and thanks for talking through this. Very thoughtful and well researched

$19 share price in 2030 wtf?? Its much better simply buying an index fund