We Are Right On Schedule…

Maybe it goes sideways or down in summer, but it peaks only in June-July, and before that it pumps like crazy in May. Next few months will be euphoric, forget about deeper corrections. Stock market is already oversold, put/call ratio near extreme levels, May is historically bullish for tech stocks (if earnings come out good). Bitcoin will probably chop around here and close month negatively (first time in 8 months), then to the moon! And even if there is a larger correction in the future, it will happen above previous ATH, that's where BTC.D dumps and altseason kicks in. So the fun is just getting started...It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

From my observation and historical market pattern, there might be a bit of turbulence in the market coming up, but here's the deal: Trying to guess what's going to happen next is less important than spreading your bets when trading and thinking long term. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape....

It's been dumping and pumping in this range for ages! It's technically just going sideways, sideways means generally stagnant. More emphasis should be put into day trading, as it less affected by the unpredictable nature of the market. Trading has been going smooth for me as I managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

The recent stock market rally has left investors questioning whether it's the end of the bear market or a sign of volatility to come, especially with traditional indicators like the inverted yield curve signaling caution. In such a climate, pivoting to the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies could be a wise move. Despite a potentially bearish stock market, the crypto market remains a hub of innovation and opportunity. Amidst this the insights of a knowledgeable guide like Tobias Hawke can be crucial. His expertise in navigating the nuances of cryptocurrency investments could be the key to understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends.

Which software do you use to make these? They are really well done!

thank you

Current market condition = degen. It just keeps going up regardless of data.

What does the video author mean by 'on schedule' ???

Risk will be re-steepening and a decrease in oil prices...counter intuitive from 45 years of Pavlovian response. China will accelerate their selling of US treasuries in response to the trade war implemented by brain dead administrators of the
Brandon crew in DC. Meanwhile Anthony Blinken plays the fiddle (singing "Rocking in the Free World") in a bar in Kiev.

Don't worry. It's coming. Just at the moment when most investors feel It won't happen, and this time's different".

Why does the curve steepen when the market fears a recession?
Steepening means investors abandon long-term bonds for short-term ones, which should not signal a recession expectation and is the opposite of the yield curve inversion.

I'm renting right now while saving up for a down payment/deposit. House prices and mortgage repayments are very high right now in Australia. I did the math, even though my rent went up, it's still cheaper than paying down a mortgage.

Should I time buying a house when this recession finally hits?

I feel that would decrease house proces. It'll also result in the central bank cutting interest rates so it'll be easier for me to borrow for the mortgage.

Thoughts?

Oh no, another financial meltdown been waiting since 2012

Luckily everytime FED steps in, it pushes my dream of ever owning a home by another 10-20 years. At this stage i am going to need to figure out a way on how to live for 300 years or so just afford a house.

From $7K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
......

Bottom line? I love your videos, everything make so much sense but I never understand your prediction

Bull run all the way to 2025 , banner cycle only top in 2026

There’s unlimited fake money, the only way the crash is going is upwards and steal your cheap stocks traded on fear. The market is like a company balance sheet - not connected to reality.

Well I sold all my stock and I am in a money market fund now…….lets see how much I miss out on….or will I be able to buy back later at a lot less? As an antidote I have always been wrong…in the past when I sold the market has continued to go up….will this time be different?

Crude oil is not an issue. The price of refined products is, and has slowed consumer appetite, now that consumer credit is elevated.

QE is the factor that doesnt let the markets crash.

Government spending trumps your narrative.

You have a video on what you think happened in 1987? JPY seems like massive risk to interest rate policy rn

I mean, ok. But what's the catalyst for Oil prices going up? Greed by oil producers? War in the middle east? Oil seems to be rangebound as if they know they will cause a recession if they increase prices too rapidly, which will only bite them in the ass harder.

We are insulated from oil prices shocks. the shale revolution makes us a net exporter of oil. Go create better indicators instead of the yield curve inversion. It's an old idea everyone and their mother knows about it and it has lost it's predictive powers. Yaaaawn!

global intervention is the difference b/w current era & pre GFC

the 2Y needs to go below the 10Y that's a true bull steepener, when that happens you can count 5 months forward

The Fed will just bail the entire system out again. This strategy worked in the GFC and Covid. It will work again as long as people don’t lose confidence in the Dollar. Let the circus roll on…

Makes sense because shit happens every 100 years. Look it up. COVID is a prime example from the previous pandemic

The market goes up for 6 months, it will go down for 6 months.

Right now ALL Leading indicators SCREAMS RECESSION!!! Here just a few Schiller index, Buffet indicator, Inverted yield curve, Consumer Confidence Index, Credit card and Car loan defaults, Bank defaults, Commercial Real Estate bank-loan roll-overs in May and through 2024......and there are MANY MORE - JUST NUTS THE MARKET still "think it is all good"!!!

...I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio dwindle away is such an eye -sore.

This video and associated graphics/charts/info is a literal masterpiece. You and your team are absolutely world class, at the top of the game . I tip my hat to ye . Thanks for all the hours invested

2024 bull run in SPY … mid ‘25 big pullback

But if oil shocks were made by specific groups. Now its more "decentralised" , norway x100 production, usa x1,5 production etc.. So guess tensions will influence less on the markets

Yield curve cant stay negative. The mechanics of markets only work when it is positive sloping. Short term liquidity being pumped into the system through central planning intervention merely forces the yield curve more negative, like pushing down on a spring. The longer they do this, the stronger the subsequent correction will likely be.

Pointing to things like oil shocks, pandemics, etc, as the cause of recessions is simply wrong. Black swans dont cause it, they merely create the final push that ensures the natural correction kicks off, like lightning or a cigarette butt in a forest leading to a bushfire. When a forest is overgrown, anything strong enough can cause the fire to rage..and if the forest was not overgrown, the same lightning or cigarette would have had little effect.

Right now, the yield curve indicates the forest is massively overgrown, inefficient and in need of clearing....and storm clouds are brewing, with thousands of smokers trekking through it.

The forest WILL suffer a massive bushfire. Whether it is lightning, a cigarette, or whatever is essentially irrelevant. The business cycle will business cycle.

I think the yield curve can’t predict recession, the yield curve is the result of economic forecasts of operator about future interest rate.
If institutions anticipate recession they will buy some short term bonds and sell long maturity bonds that why the yield curve is inverted.
But that that is not the cause

beautiful graphics

ur editing skills are out of this world

GME and amc pumped huh lol

Garbage market

I don't recall the Fed deploying plunge protection in 2007. Market manipulation was left up to the private sector. Same with housing. Moratorium on foreclosures? This has been a taxpayer funded by bubble extension program

This data combined with g m e price run is not a coincidence

Remember, kids, if Biden wins reelection they won't call it a recession or collapse. They'll lie to all of us.

Don't forget to hit that like button

Ism pmi going up fast. CPI will follow. So will dollar and commodities

The yield curve is manipulated like never before. This is not 2008. You have not mentioned QE policies…

Welcome to the great depression 2.0.