Yield Curve Inversion Madness

What's the ticker for "VU" he mentioned. I couldn't find it. Thank you.

Lmao, he said am I still off the dab

Hey can you do a video showing us you portfolio, you don't have to show the amount but just the precentage of each stock, etf of the total.

How do I buy bonds?

Still watching your videos even though I've stopped attempting to trade. I have your Leaps are Supreme video on my Watch Later cause I am still so confused on it hahaha. Hopefully it all finally clicks in the future when I started trading again and have more money to invest/play with. It's nice to keep up and be updated with the market though.

Glad to see you are doing well and able to make videos again here and there!

Hey Adam hope your doing well, keep on with your journey..( life told me..sometimes you have to transpass „places“ you definitely don’t want to be, to reach where you planed to go to.. and you will enjoy it more because you have seen how f*** up it could be)

My question: i saw/ heard a option trading house elaborate about „synthetic covered calls strategy“ roi of about 100% by 1/3 of money put to risk (vs. Covers calls) in 6 month
Their numbers seem legit but I woul trust your expertise much more!
Thx

“Maybe the stars are so far apart that there’s no light anymore and there’s no Federal Reserve” 😂😂

I hear you not a fan of Dividend stock, but for those of us living off the dividends and have no other income except S.S. they are great

Already buying the market dip with many stocks crashed in price for a P/E under 2. Last time that happened, I bought oil transportation stock in April 2020. This was from proceeds from the stop loss sale in Intel stock, which sold for more than double the current price. Have been trading since 1998, so not a new trader. I am a value investor. In the 3 years since January 2020 to now, I have tripled my holdings value and my portfolio total dividend and cost results in a 15% annual return on investment. The extra boost in yield is the risk of buying on stocks that crashed in value. I bought only the ones with a very low P/E before the reason for the sell off shows in the quarterly reports. For 2020, it was oil transportation from the drop in demand for crude of 30%, which I guessed was a temporary condition. This paid off. Bought WES for under $6 per share. Bought XOM for under $40 per share. Due to low costs, yield is 36.9% and just under 10% on cost. XOM is up 190% in value. WES is up 421% in value. What is down now? What is in the news... A recession and the drop in demand for shipping. Do I see Deja vu? Bought ZIM last month for $17.88. I'll let you know in 3 years what my gain and dividend yield on cost is then. Ask me to remind me. For high yields, buy low. The lower the better, but only in companies with good profit history.
ZIM was founded in 1945, so not a new company. They recently went public with an IPO. Looking forward to the next quarterly report. Revenue will be down, earnings may temporarily go negative, and dividends cut, just like WES. It's a gamble, yes, but with a P/E under 1 I like the odds.

One thing that people often aren't considering is that QT influences the yield curve. The Fed was buying lots of bonds during QE and when they stop buying, that influences volume and the yield differential. You can tie the yield curve inversion into QT. This is one of several reasons why it could be a false signal.

have you tried investing all your money is tesla but only in the last 3 weeks?
Best strategy ever.

I'm so glad you're making videos again!! <3

my dude is pumping out content, man i missed this.

Is there like a full song for your outro music. Really catchy

What do you think about VGT? So far this portfolio has outperformed (Total returns) the benchmark: VGT, SCHD, JEPI and BND. 30-30-30-10% respectably.

Not sure if I completely agree with you saying that the economy was going great in 2019. People may have felt that, but behind the curtain the signs were there.
-Bond market began getting wary from mid-late 2018 (both corporate and treasury).
-M2 money supply YoY% started steadily rising from Q4 2018 and onwards.
-ISM reports show a manufacturing slowdown throughout 2019 that actually went into contraction from August onwards.
-Durable Goods New Orders coming down from peak in Sep 2018 and continued declining through 2019.
-Industrial Production Index also coming down from peak in Sep 2018 and declining.
-SBO YoY was negative throughout 2019.
-European economic sentiment had been on a decline since Jan 2018.
-China's real GDP YoY% was dropping throughout 2019 (but China's numbers should always be taken with quite a large grain of salt, so in reality it may have been worse than reported)

soo all our long options to 2024 are dead? :(

Adam, I've spent the last 6 months learning all I could about bonds, interest rates, yield curves, etc. And I have to say your take on the yield curve being a useless indicator for recession is spot on.

Anytime the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several consecutive times we've went into a recession,

My guess is we go into a recession with a milder sell off than last year with a trough in March or May ($SPY 320 by then maybe), with rates peaking then and bad earnings for next Q priced in

I have learned so much from you Adam. A lot more than Options trading. I feel your pain. I've suffered a lot of pain including blurry vision, joint pain, inability to walk without the use of a cane. Etc. Many doctors only treated symptoms but not the underlying cause. Finally, taking my wife's advise saw a Rheumatoid Arthritis doctor who diagnosed me with Reiters syndrome where my healing began. I understand the pain and suffering where you almost feel like giving up. Stayed strong and bounced back. You are a smart young man and know that you will overcome this and come out stronger than ever. No shame in crying as suffering changes us. Accept the suffering and release some with crying. Sending prayers 🙏 or positive energy your way if not religious. Big virtual hug. Love you and take care Adam.

This is what I need. The bond market is so huge. Originally wrote "bong"

what leaps are you looking to buy when the market crashes?

if rates are lower on the long-end of the yield curve its because there is a expectation of trouble further out (for which the Fed must accommodate) - hence an inverted yield-curve spells recession / the fed being forced to loosen to accommodate a weak economy and/or market

Suddenly I am painfully aware of my stop losses

curious why you choose BND over TLT? with TLT being all treasury bonds and covered calls on TLT are nice as well

Great and informative video 👍. Despite the economic crisis, I’m so excited earning $36,000 weekly from my $10,000 investment all thanks to Mrs Mary Lynn crawford.

In the immortal words of Cleopatra, “correlation ain’t causation bro”

Wait, not even joking yesterday I stubbed my toe... Watch out two months guys

Happy to see you’re feeling good enough to post these vids, really hoping for the best for you and your brother, thanks for the great content

Thanks for everything you do brother!

Why are people debating whether or not we're in a recession when nearly every Central Bank on earth had record low interest rates for over a decade? That is something that has never happened before and yet people act like 0% interest rates for the wealthy and 2.5% 30 year mortgage rates are normal.

Real question: what is MeetKevin’s opinion on yield inversions?

feels a little like pattern matching.

Those recessions had other issues that may or may not have had anything to do with rates.

The internet boom / bust would have happened regardless of an inversion in yield curves. You had companies that never made a product or service valued in the billions of dollars or more, and even what would normally be value companies were sometimes trading at PE ratios in the 30's or higher.

The last one on the graph the curve inverts and then we get into the economic issues of the sars-CV2 and how the reaction from government impacted the economy.

If government shut-downs around the world were different the recession might not have happened at all yet the inverted yield curve right before 2020 wouldn't have been predictive at all.

At best it is an indicator that might mean, "heads up and keep your eyes out for storm winds ahead" but you may also never encounter the storm winds. The world is very complex.

Example - we could have a Russian / Ukrainian war drag on for a year or more. Or they could stop it tomorrow. Both would have vastly different outcomes for the economies around the globe as lots of uncertainty is off the table and that might make the 2019 inversion meaningless.

But again, it is a caution flag that says be aware but I wouldn't call it predictive. Here you even acknowledge how in the 70s and 80s it is a bit different. Wouldn't that make even fewer samples for this pattern matching? Like 5 times in 40 years?

i gots two puts that are currently in the money baby!!!

Thank you for making videos, Adam. You inspire me to work harder. Hope you get well soon!

The audio quality was incredible.

😂😎👊✊. Bro said Don't fool yo self fool! Classic OG talk.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Hey @inThemoney I had question can you explain how theta decays works on iron condors because I feel like I’m only making 2$ a day off of 1.50 tsla iron condor

Best channel

Sorry to tell you, biden has said this is the BEST economy ever and continued low unemployment. You are obviously not a democrat with your recession views! In case you did not know, the administration has changed the definition of a recession and none will occur under biden's term in office.

Just looked at an IRA statement from April 1998, during the tech bull run. Money Market was paying 4.84% -- higher than today.

Do you have any idea how they defined those grey areas (recessions)?

You have been dropping more content lately. I hope this means you are feeling better Adam!

Thanks!

so not a hard or a soft landing but a DELAYED landing

Hey Adam, do you know if the robinhood roth ira collects interest on uninvested cash?

Very well explained about the yield curve. Thank you!