Monthly Sales Forecast with Seasonality and Trend - EXCEL regression with dummy variables

Sir, could you please explain us why we have to lock 🔒 intercept, please explain and please explain me about p value.

Sir what If we have Jan to March instead of Jan to Dev
Because of I have value from Jan to March and when I am doing the method the out is not showing right could you please give me a hint

I would like to thank you so much

and also, why you used three years data? what will be wrong if I use two- or four-years data?

I think residual should be zero or close to zero! right? but in your case it is too much; so, can we say your forecast is good?

Hello Sir
Where can I get the Excel worksheet to follow your presentation. Thanks

Thank you for the video, it is really helpful!

so "t" is for trend and "jan" thru "nov" is for seasonality. am i correct

Hello! Don't know what I did wrong but when I tried to use the Regression tool in Excel's pack, it said "The number of rows and columns in X range cannot be the same."

Excellent sir. Can we use the same process for 5 year forecast. Please do reply sir

Its giving a biased forecast line

Great video, is very usefull, thanks. i have a question, why dont use december when you transpose the months?

why time period t is used ?.

why don't you use December?

How we can analyse the forecast with second order linear function with seasonality.

why dummy variable was used

Great work! Solved a problem I have been working on for days.

Simple and elegantly presented. Was working on a forecast and other descriptions online were abhorrent to say least. The error range was HUGE, but thanks to you my standard error reduced to 2%. Asante Sana!!!🤗

What about daily forecast, how do we create matrix?

Hey, what if we have to forecast yearly sales. How many years would we need to enter as the dummy variable ?

Hello. When using this method, Excel is showing the value function but I don't know what I did wrong. Any idea?

Is is usable for other figures like ebt, ooe, etc?

Thank you for great content!
What if we would like to add another variable - i.e., a change in product prices (let's assume cyclical price increases, as well as occasional promotions, for example, for a month of time)? How would your model then need to be modified?

would you mind explain, why to exclude the last month on your dummy variable?

interesting example. Science based :) What do you think about latest forecast functions included in the "pack" =FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY()?

Great content explained in detail! Amazing!