"Covid-19 Scratch Models to Support Local Decisions" Ed Kaplan Analytics Summit 2020 June 15

Edward H. Kaplan, William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research, Professor of Public Health, Professor of Engineering, Yale School of Management, Yale University

I was appointed to Yale University’s COVID-19 advisory committee to provide analyses supporting university decisions during the early weeks of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. This work expanded in response to requests from the Yale New Haven Hospital and the State of Connecticut for help. Much of this work relied on scratch modeling, that is, models created from scratch in real time. Applications to date include determining crowd-size restrictions on events, hospital surge planning, university shutdown and restart timing decisions, designing viral testing programs, and environmental monitoring by testing sludge from the local wastewater treatment plant. I will describe the problems faced, types of models developed, and advice offered during real-time response to the COVID-19 crisis at the local level.

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