It’s Nearly as Bad as September 2007…

You need to do the contraction of the m2 last year. That's the real trigger that and 1 trillion in commercial real estate loans coming due and jump in yhe rates for the loans during in the next year.

I normally have faith in the invisible hand. But this market seems to be held together by low taxes and trillions of deficit spending per year. Why isn’t the visible hand seeing how problematic and unsustainable that is? Are stocks just pricing in hyperinflation?

All I saw is that every time the vix bottoms the market is higher than the last time. Funny how that works over the long term.

as bad in 2007 ? you're a noob.

2007/2008 the US financial system was a retarded wild west, where big institutions like Bear Sterns or Lehman Brothers's Asset to Equity ratio was over 30x. Yes, 30x, which means a 3% drop in asset price will wipe out equity value, and easily cause systemic credit squeeze / shocks in the banking system

Back then , you also have a side unregulated derivative market (so much larger than the underlying) in form of CDS, CDOs, CMOs. Alan Greenspan's "free market" approach was an absolute failure.

This has changed since then, with Dodd Frank act shielding the financial system, banks de-risking their proprietary business ...etc , so basically the financial system is highly unlikely to face a systematic shock like in 2008 . May be another savings and loan crisis like in 1990s with possible failure in some regional banks (idiosyncratic risk), but that is way different than 2007 (systemic risk)

Thank you always for the excellent content. Always educational and informative.

How about that volume today...

😂😂😂

vol shorts

Trees really do grow to the sky 🌴

Your voice is really good for narration. I'll certainly miss hearing the calm, intellectual sound.

It is impossible to time anything - just buy things that are priced well. People have been conditioned to buy every dip. Whenever we have a bigger draw down it is going to be a drawn-out train wreck of knife catchers.

More dume Kaushun vid e Oh! Meanwhilst the market goes up up and up! Good Luck Bears!

Central bank is so much smarter now.😆

The VIX under 20 is a relatively safe time to be in the market. Rising above 20 and it's time to be cautious and possibly get out of the market and look for defensive sectors to invest in.

Great!

Spread is low and going lower.
We need to see it reach the historic low levels while yield curves return to norm.
Only then will the current money musical chairs game end. When nobody is talking about a recession anymore then they'll get something worse.

this is now the longest inverted yield curve isn't it? Do a video about it!

Very good video about the Vix.

The gamestop rally a couple days ago is all the confermation bis i need to know i need to gtfo out of stocks

When the VIX is low, look out below!

I think you cant have major market crashes any more because big pension funds have too much reliance on the stock market so people can retire. So it coule easily be rigged to ensure people retire

It looks to me like a low VIX often results in a blow off rally.

We will not see any crash in our lifetime i think.

Fiat will inevitably return to it's intrinsic value: Zero.

This pump will last forever until dollar crash, which will destroy everything

bullish for stocks, especially the SPX... just buy and get rich... stop being a permabear $$$

It's 1929 all over again folkes.

Companies beating estimates means time to sell everything and go away!😂

buffet will have 200 b in cash by the end of the year and the yield curve has been inverted forever, somethings got to give.

🔥👍

1 black swan event and oil will go up with the rise of volatility

A 25 or 50 basis point cuts won't save commercial RE or the regional banks that financed them. They need ZIRP and 1% interest only loans to survive and that is not happening any time soon.

If I get hired do we get more videos? Keep up the great work!

I do voiceover in spanish if youbare interested in tackling spanish viewers. I also like this kind of topics so thanks for your insights 🎉

Is this being masked by "buy now pay later" ?
It does not hit your credit till you default.

No more crashes in any markets ever. It is all different now so keep investing or you will lose out. The Fed Res has it figured out and the sky is the limit for market gains.

It is all gunna crash like a mofo.

Complacent while we hit all time highs!

💪😎🎸 KILLA 🎸👻

You’re not making enough of these videos! I hold my breath until your next. You want me to die?