Beware of NVidia Collapse $85 - Watch Before You Buy! The AI BUBBLE IS HERE

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can you revisit this topic? it's aged very poorly. curious what your thoughts are now. i definitely think its a bubble at these levels

Haha here we are 1150
3T 🤣

Perfect work. Thank you

This aged well… lol

Stock's doubled since

As a CFA, i think you could be more responsible about what you say. MSFT hit over 100 just before 2000, then it dropped 30% in early 2000, and stayed there for quite a long time for anyone who wanted to get out.

MSFT later had a 2:1 split. But even after the split, it was never down to a single digit. Yes, it had a further crash but it was never a single digit.

If you only look at numbers, you should not invest in any company cuz you are only looking at the consequences, without knowing what led to those numbers. That is like investing with one's eyes closed. Bill Gates retired and Steve Ballmer took over as the CEO in 2000. Steve had no technical background but a MBA from Standford. Steve lacked both knowledge and vision in technology and led the company to hell. He focused on all the things you are focusing on now... trying to get maximum cash flow and profits on the current business instead of leading or even chasing the technology revolution. He ran an IT company like a supermarket franchise. There was literally zero--absolute zero--improvement or innovation from MSFT during his reign. MSFT was basically living off legacy products. But the balance sheet looked good.

In 2014, Satya took over. Satya rose to the top from a technical background. He turned MSFT back to a real IT company and switched focus on technology and innovation (at least chasing others' innovation) and long-term growth. MSFT stock started to rise to the top under Satya's leadership.

If Satya or Jesen suddenly passed away today (touched woods), MSFT or NVDA could easily drop 25% in market cap within the next week or month.

As an investor, one should not pay for just the numbers, but what brings forth those numbers. Leadership is a key asset of the company and worth billions!

this hasnt aged well to date. its up 10x since this video

Turns out it was cheap. It’s important to understand the product, market, and their competitive advantages.

I think 120 is probably more likely relative to historical trends and obviously these numbers change as the story progresses but yeah a 90% crash is likely.

People are trashing Cameron in the comments but I think theyre missing the point that its about avoiding downside... impossible to predict how wild a stock like this can get but he makes a good case for why its not worth taking the risk

Hindsight is 20/20 but NVDA is trading above $720 today. I sold some at $591.

NVIDIA's current evaluation is irational

I'm so glad I NEVER followed your HORRIBLY inaccurate warning on NVDA which I had bought (about 500 shares with avg. cost basis $121.39) during 4th quarter 2022, with my NVDA position now sitting at about +$340,000 as of today Tuesday 2/6/24. I'm confident that holding onto this position (without adding any additional shares while making a CONCERTED effort to IGNORE 'traditional analysts/NVDA BEARS like yourself' who will continue to caution against NVDA ) will grow to over a HALF a MILLION DOLLAR position ) by 2025 as I'm quite familiar with the latest AI NVDA chips which are dominating the market right now. NVDA is the closest thing I've ever personally experienced to a 'multi-bagger' and I'm finding that my MOST DIFFICULT challenge comprises, disregarding the bearish NVDA skeptics. Thanks to NVDA (and META- my 2nd largest position behind NVDA) my total portfolio crossed the $1 million dollar benchmark ) last month, all before I turn 30 years old this coming summer. I'm sure you're a competent CFA, but before you go on preaching about an impending 'AI bubble' (based on your traditional analysis) you really ought to familiarize yourself with the AI industry and it's NOT going away anytime soon . In summary, this particular video of yours (made about 6 months ago) wholeheartedly deserves a faceplant 🤬

Would have been an informative video if it wasn't inaccurate because Nvidia is trading at less than 30X forward. Also you said their stock based compensation reduces their free cash flow, which it doesn't, it just dilutes the shares. Lastly that 2024 projected ebita is way too conservative, they're going to produce that ebita in each quarter from now forward.

It’s important to conduct your own research and make investment decisions based on your own analysis.

This video did not age well at all.🤣🤣🤣

NVDA is very similar to Sun in 1997, when it was selling practically gold because all internet companies needed sun workstations to operate websites. A few years later Sun was sold for pennies on the dollar.

Not going to age well

Where is the follow up to this video? Why don’t you have the guts to continue calling out NVDA? Just cause the price skyrocketed since this video doesn’t mean you go silent…there have have been numerous red flags on nvda’s earnings reports and I’d like to hear your thoughts on NVDA again.

I respect the very intelligent financial analytics, excellent work.

The question I have is that where i totally understand the valuation concern and how their market cap could come down despite earnings increasing. However, I would think the stance improves as they earn more revenue. For example, they are 30 billion in sales now, which is. 40x multiplier to the market cap. If they grow from 30 billion to over 100, then even at a 10x multiplier we’re still at the 1 trillion market cap. I heard their sales prediction into 2027-2028 could be 200-300 billion so if that is true, and we maintained even a 10x multiples of sales, then we’d be at 1.5-3 trillion market cap, so we’d 3x the stock.

I’d think that 80$ valuation could occur if there is vulnerability in the short term while we still have only 30-40 billion in sales. Or, when the AI gravy train is over in 5-10 years and we have to still earn those annual sales but are having trouble.

Nvda head and shoulders in play

their trailing 12 months net income is ~10 billion so far in 2023. stock comp is 3 billion. Their projected growth is 200% in 2024.

They have a monopoly on AI accelerators, through both software and hardware superiority, which are forecasted to growth at least 30% CAGR over the next 10 YEARS.

AI will be a 10+ trillion dollar industry in the next 20/30 years that will disrupt every industry. Computing power needed for AI is exponentially increasing and all companies are desperate today to win the AI race.

Companies are valued on future cashflows, not past.

nvda is the biggest bubble on nasdaq

Nvidia collapse to $85 ?Are you completely off your tiny mind ?

Picked up a few hundred shares of NVDS at 35. Holding to 67. That's my 10 year treasury! Once I saw TSM crater, I knew the amount of orders for chips was cosplay! Sorry, can't use preorders as revenue stream to mislead the retail crowd. Someday, but not now!

I think the stock buyback is for next year’s stock base compensation for their employees.

Nvidia nearly doubled their revenue in 1 quarter. Out of $13.5 billion in revenue, $6.1 billion flowed straight to the bottom line. $25 billion in stock buybacks and $16 billion in guidance for the next quarter. Nvidia is the only game in town. Actually, the stock is cheaper now on a P/E basis than the time of this video.

Lure the greedy suckers in for a fall. Ceo and cfo unloaded, still don't get the clue then enjoy the fall.

Understood that the multiplier of 70x isn’t sustainable, but if the forward P/E ratio is reduction from 200 to 20-30, that increases value and could attract more shareholders without changing the price. So, it would make the 500/share more valuable, thus driving it further?

Cash flow statement is the most important statement there is, shows the real story. The momentum guys and the option guys are messing with it. The stock is worth 2 times book at most. They all come down. Also, QQQ is dependent on 7 stocks and NVDA is part of them. If you got in years ago great, but chase it now? Why.

Question is when. Tesla was/is waaay overvalued and shorts got their asses handed to them for years.

Did you short it? That would show us that you are serious and confident about your opinion.

Finally a rational mind. Thank you.

Thank you for your cash flow analysis.

I was wondering about stock buy back when they don’t have enough cash on hand. I thought growing company needs to spend cash on capital improvement to make more products for future sales, marking up prices for higher revenue is short lived business practice, too many competitors. The high stock compensation is a sign of greed, it is good for employees but not for the company. If it is not good for the company, it is not good for investors.

Great Video ! Nvidia is way over valued & that's why I sold mine at about $430 which I had bought at about $150 .

It also has bubbled because of Social Media showing how much the members of Congress and other government heads have bought the hell out of the share.

for me that is fine the 10% for the employees. No employees, no company.

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Really kicking myself for not buying it last fall

very good sharing. I agree with your conservative approach of analysis.

Bro just asking why don't you analyse with latest Q1&Q2 earning report data? It could be more attractive as old data not relecting the latest trend. Just an opinion

thank you for sharing this amazing video

looks like it is going to reach 850 after the earning report

Love this channel! Super appreciate you explaining your thought process.
Was ballsy to make this NVDA clip. It's definitely way overvalued, priced for utmost perfection, and I see it being flogged in any downturn or miss.

I would nibble under $200 with a long term hold knowing it could possibly go to about $100. NVDA will trade at a premium but the price now is insane the Fomo in this company well it speaks for itself. I don’t like the macro right now anyone still in this is playing with a massive downside right now. I’m a growth investor very comfortable buying some future earnings NVDA is just in a world of their own.

Stocks aren't purchased for past performance but expected future performance. Retail investors cant move the needle like that on large cap stocks.