Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump Polling Insights

Vice President Kamala Harris has suffered a triple blow after two recently released surveys put her behind Donald Trump in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, while a third showed her trailing the Republican presidential candidate at the national level.

Polls of likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted by Cygnal and Emerson College both gave Trump a 1 point lead in the battleground state, which comes with 20 Electoral College votes. Separately, a Napolitan News Service survey gave the former president a 1 point advantage nationally.

Harris quickly established herself as the Democrats' presumptive presidential nominee after Joe Biden announced he was stepping down from the race and offered her his endorsement, on July 21. This initially resulted in a clear Democratic poll boost with Harris outperforming Trump in more than a dozen national surveys, and becoming the favorite to win in November with a number of leading bookmakers.

Between August 12 and 14, RMG Research polled 2,708 likely voters across the United States for Napolitan News Service, which found Trump leading Harris by 46 percent to 45 percent. When undecided voters leaning one way were included, Trump's margin extended to 49 percent against 47 percent, compared to the last RMG poll a week ago, which put both candidates on 49 percent.

Cygnal poll of 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania, conducted on August 14-15, found 44 percent would back Trump in a presidential contest versus 43 percent for Harris and 5 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump increased his polling by 2 points since the last Cygnal survey in July, while Kennedy saw his support fall by 4 points.

In better news for the Democrats, the survey gave incumbent Senator Bob Casey a 46 percent vs 42 percent lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick. However, it also found Casey underperformed a generic Democratic Senate candidate by 2 points with all voters, and 8 percent with Democratic supporters.

Emerson College surveyed 1,000 likely voters in Pennsylvania for RealClearPennsylvania, on August 13 and 14. It found Trump had a 1 point lead with 49 percent of the vote against 48 percent for Harris. This extended to 51 percent against 49 percent once undecided voters who lean one way were allocated to that candidate. When Kennedy was included, Harris and Trump were tied on 47 percent, with the independent candidate on 3 percent.

The survey found voters aged under 40 backed Harris over Trump by 61 percent against 36 percent, while the Republican nominee's strongest lead was with those aged 50-69, where he led by 57 percent to 40 percent. Trump led among protestant voters by 58 percent to 40 percent, and Catholic voters with 60 percent against 39 percent. Harris enjoyed a 84 percent vs 13 percent advantage among atheist and agnostic voters, along with a 56 percent to 39 percent lead for those with no particular religious affiliation.

Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment on Monday by email outside of regular office hours.

The latest The New York Times/Siena College survey, of 1,973 likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, showed a 35 point gender gap between support for Trump and Harris. Among men, the Republican lead by 14 points, while with women the vice president enjoyed a 21 point lead. If elected in November, Harris would become the first female president in U.S. history. The survey was conducted between August 5 and 9.

From Monday to Thursday, the Democratic National Convention will take place at the United Center Arena in Chicago. The event is expected to be heavily protested by pro-Palestinian demonstrators.

Скачать видео