Finance Professor Explains: S&P 500 Price Prediction by 2030

wow this channel is just a W in every way. THANK YOU PROFESSOR

I'm really stuck. I have VUAG but can't find another accumulating etf to go with it that's not also heavily weighted in the US. Options please?

What a great video!!! A big thank you from Chile 😘

Professor, is there a way we could contact you to discuss in depth personal case of investing?

If I have 40k to invest...do I put all in my 3 desired ETF's all at once or do I DCA $1000 per month until it is all invested over the next 3.5 years? Why $1000 per month that is just what my goal per month is...I guess I could increase that to invest it all sooner. Thanks for your direction and advice.

Literally the three ETFs I'm investing in. VOO, SCHD, QQQM. I'M CURRENTLY INVESTING $100 EQUALLY INTO EACH OF THOSE EVERY SINGLE WEAK FOR 1200 A MONTH INVESTMENT...😎

Why wait until the end of the year to add your cash to the market ? Why not invest it right away ?

Anyone remember nikkei in 1990? Sp500 can be the same way in next decade?

voo gain for me 24% on 93,000

That's a great insight. I always learn a lot from you Prof G. You're the best, thanks so much!!!

Bro, you were so wrong to predict a 20% drop by the end of 2023.

Do you think it is a wise choice to have my entire 401K invested in the S&P 500

How many shares is a good number of shares to buy into just ‘one’ of these eft stocks, to see longterm gains in the beginning stages of investment?

Does this apply if the US defaults on its $33 TRILLION of debt?

Should I fill Roth IRA Jan 1? Or wait?

I love the simplified way you explain complex financial topics. I have a question around the 3 fund portfolio that you explained in another video comprising of a growth fund indexed to SP500 like SPY or VOO, a tech heavy NASDAQ-100 index funds like Invesco QQQ and a dividend fund like SCHD in allocation proportion of 40, 20 and 40 percent respectively. I started applying the principle as part of a dollar cost average strategy from last month with 2K dollars. However I read and found that the market currently is highly overvalued and might go for a correction soon. In that scenario of an overvalued market, would you still recommend the same allocation of 40, 20, 40 or should we lean more towards more of a dividend fund for the period when the market is overvalued?. In the same way, would you advise allocating more percentage to the growth funds when the market is down and undervalued? Based on your research and experience, do you think it is a worthwhile pursuit for an investor to check the market status (overvalued and undervalued) and adjust the percentages accordingly? Might be good to make a video on this topic to put your view across.

I'm 100% green to investing with no advisors available. But I decided to diversify into 3rds. 1/3 s&p500 (if America does well) 1/3 physical gold (if America does bad), 1/3 into a HISA above 4%. (Typical safety net).

I don't know if this was the right way to go. But I'm just trying to keep it simple.

What do you say about the S&P coming down in Q3 and Q4 of 2024?

Just watched your video now in November 2023, when you recorded this video in May 2023, SP 500 was around 4100 give or take...now in NOVEMBER 20th 2023 is at 4515....I think 90% of gurus predicted that the market would get below 3200 and its not even close......not even close....its insane.....seriously I think predicting what price will be in 6 months or 1 year from now is almost like gambling.......predicting price 5 to 10 years is more realistic like you said in the beggining probably by 2030 SP will be at 8000

I have the feeling this was the winner for a long time, but with the world moving away from America, and rise of brics - and the introduction of sanctions to America - this party maybe over :/

I’m conflicted at what to do now , I guess I’ll invest anyway and hopefully not get stung in a recession and then in the new multi polar world the American market won’t be the same —- guess it’s a gamble but I’ll prob still take it

Wishful thinking?

I started investing in August 2021 and even with the full hit of 2022 still my returns are positive nearly 5%. The consistency of the dca method is always the key.

S&P500 up 73% 5yr, 198% 10yr.

I think 10% annual growth is way too high over the next 10 years. With a PE of 20, the S&P500 has an expected return of 5%. Tack on a couple percent for inflation and we're likely to get something closer to 7% per year, leading to a little over 10 years to double. Unfortunately, these predictions are useless. In reality anything can happen to move us either direction on the distribution curve of returns, and the market will test all investors to see if you can handle it.

I tried crypto, fail, I tried individual stocks again fail been on S&P500 for past year and I’m doing great

2030…8000??? Brother if it hit 5000 by 2033 I’ll be shocked. Lost decade-15 years incoming. Hope I’m wrong

I just tested this taking the close of the index in mid July and taking the average of the three years, with middle year stated. 1984 to 1991 gets you 2.27 times, 91 to 98 3.04, 98 to 05 1.00 times, 05 to 12 1.22 times, 12 to 19 1.9 times. No room for the next seven, so 15 to 22 gets you 2.03 times. I was hoping for a smoother ride that had been suggested. In fact, rather than doubling every seven years, you might end up the same or triple.

Superb

Are you Portuguese ? I am and i could not resist to comment about the ( Galo de Barcelos ) in your table :D

Great video! I think a huge point is to make sure you're dollar cost averaging. Do not lump sum yourself into the market right now. If you look at the Buffett indicator we're way overpriced on the S&P. Money you're putting into the market now is going to have a low return. Doesn't hurt to take your 5.25% bond return right now until the market gets a little more in line with actual earnings.

Pls I’m now going to buy ETF is it advisable to buy at this time @investingsimplified

Absolutely clueless. @ me in 6-7 years...

I agree with all this. But I have my concerns is that this pattern may slow down somewhere in the future. Except if we expect that there is no ceiling to the capital that best 500 companies can gather. Apple already costs some trillions. How much a company can reach?

No way past data is a good predictor for the future, the biggest demographic of investors (baby boomers) are retiring and with millenials / gen Z being the smallest demographic with poor purchasing power due to inflation, the S&P will be stagnant for decades.

If you can do the same with the Nasdaq QQQ will be great.

I’m in the uk
If I invest in vanguard S&P 500 I’m I correct in saying i can’t auto invest the dividends ( I’m sure I read that somewhere ??

Professor, thanks for sharing your insight. I am an elementary teacher nearing the end of my career. I have been investing for a few years, BUT I don't have anything in my portfolio that specifically tracks the S&P 500. I was planning on adding VOO to my portfolio in 2024, BUT I recently began comparing the possible returns of increasing my allocations in a SCHG & SCHD combo (that I already have in my portfolio) instead of investing in VOO. What are your thoughts regarding such a move? ALSO, I am considering suggesting the same advice to my daughter, who works part-time & is entering her senior year at university. Would your advice or thoughts be different for her? Thanks for your time and attention.

Fantastic work 👏 👍 👌
Please keep it up your doing an amazing job !!!

excellent

The S&P500 is certainly a good choice. But it only carries American stocks. Just because the U.S. has done well so far doesn't mean it will continue to do so for the next 50 years. Another good option would be a global ETF which also covers China, Europe, India, etc.

Hi there. Do you still believe the S&P will go down by 20% by the end if this year?

Why do you not do international funds?

My bank is giving me $50 each month for my 10k I have sitting in one of my savings accounts.
For 7 years (that is 84 months) it would be a total of $4200 that I got from my bank cash for money just sitting in my savings with zero risk

Is this a good method?

Jan 1, 2000 S&P 500 price is $1,425.59
If unfortunately you bought VOO on that day you would wait for about 19 years until 2019 to get the price doubled.

Here is my pick,
average of 2000, 1999, 1998 is 1212.57
average of 2010, 2009, 2009 is 1122.64
2009 S&P 500 price is not double 1999 S&P 500 but lost 7%
Conclusion: S&P 500 is not doubled for every ten years.

Hello, you are an incredible blessing and I've already started applying some of your strategies. I'm 60.5 years old and was hoping I could have a private conversation with you. I have about 400k in Edwards Jones which I will be transferring to either Fidelity or Vanguard. I also have 11 Rental homes that are free and clear that give me an income of about $16,000. Using your strategies, I will be investing $5K to 6k each month into VOO, QQQ & SCHP. I owe around 235k on my personal home. Once that paid off, I'll have another $3k to invest. In addition, my 11 homes are worth about 2.5 Million. My question is at what point should I consider selling them. I do rely on my passive income with them and I love all the tax benefits I get from them. I'm currently invested in Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla, Google & Microsoft with only about $25k total. All the other crap is with Edwards Jones dummy funds. I thought my friend who I trusted from my church was doing me a wonderful service to find out different. Again, thank you so much for what you do. You actually make investing simplified as you mention. Would it be possible to have a one time conversation via phone? Perhaps, I could pay you for your time to help set me on a better path than where I'm at with Edwards Jones. My homes have always out performed any investment I've every made in the stock market just because, I trusted folks that didn't have my best interest at hand. Please let me know if a phone call would be a possibility. Thank you, Ricardo Garcia 520-977-7599

So an s&p 500 etf is the best investment?

What kind of factors make you think its value is going to drop by around 20% this year?

Is there a reason you did not mention Fidelity S&P500 FXAIX?