Is Joseph Carlson Playing A Fool's Game?

Yea you to be like strongman finance. Be fat and bald and scared to buy individual stocks so you only buy VT and can retire when you 80

Yes, I am better than fund managers because i don't invest to attract fees, i invest to build wealth

Great video, you’re lucky that Joseph didn’t comment on this video claiming you are using his name for clicks and monetizing off his name acting like he’s a celebrity. He’s to focused on short term performance and is terrified of any investment that has an oz of risk.

Quit Hatin on my boy Joseph!!!

Good video. I thought it was going to be you bashing Joseph the whole time, but you made some great points.

As a joseph fan this is a great video! I got pretty lucky this year on my stock picks and am thinking about just collecting my chips and buying real estate. I love the point that to make a more million simply make a bit more hundreds. Good video

Ok good points but JC has showed his returns year over year which negates your thesis. Do you show your portfolio and historical returns?

I don't belive the reason people do worse than average is to do with them selecting stocks or buying etfs. The reason is when they buy stocks and sell them. People typically buy stocks at markets highs due to FOMO and sell at market lows when they panic. If you are underinvesting before a bull market and overinvesting before a bear market your returns will be bad if you are holding etf's also.

Let me start by saying this. I don't particularly like Carlson, but when you are old and grey (if you make it to being old and grey, and I hope you do), you will discover that you are wrong, and Carlson has run away with it, and crushed your returns.
And you will say he was one lucky guy.

The smart dumb dumbs who write about the random walk, and efficient market theory forget one thing. LIFE IS RANDOM.
LIFE is a CHANCE based game. But it is ALSO a game. It isn't completely random, there are ways to improve the chance of a better outcomes. If we can't do anything to affect the outcome, none of us would do anything.
You need to learn from Carlson. Because otherwise in 30 years, you will just be bitter and jealous.

Nick why the Fuck do you care about how Joseph Carlson invests his money? He's actually beating the market. Dave Ramsey thinks you have a great chance as well.

Has anyone in the past 5 years did a return under 10% I haven't and some of them years 15% and last year for awhile my Total Returns were over 36% before falling to 25%. I'm happy wealth on low income is growing rapidly. Now that I'm doing this my self I agree with JC and Ramsey not difficult while following Warren and Lynch in resent years.

Nick, you're right, if you're talking about average people. The ones who either don't learn every detail and skill of investing which takes several years, or their mind is wired toward a different skill. Each of us is intelligent in a different way. Most of my friends are smart at something, but not investing in stocks. Or aren't willing to put in the time. Most average people ask me which stocks to invest in and actually expect an answer in one conversation. It took me 5 years of studying it every day, every minute, with a passion. Now I finally know how to grow my portfolio as much as I want, with zero downside risk. You can't explain 5 years of intense study to someone in ten minutes and make them a good investor. So yes, those people are better off buying a fund or ETF, which are better than a savings account, but not for building great wealth. So no, Joseph is not playing a fool's game. He's studying the proper techniques. You can call someone with no training in MMA a fool for getting into a street fight. They'll always lose. But someone who's put years of training into MMA can get into a street fight with zero risk. If you train enough at any skill, you can do the task without being a fool. Only those who attempt to beat the market without years of learning the hard way, yes, they are fools. Joseph is not one of those people. The most common mistake the average person makes with stocks, are what Peter Lynch calls "whisper stocks." Lots of my friends who won't put in the time, often ask me, "So what's the hot stock right now?" It actually angers me when they ask. There's no fucking thing as "the hot stock." It depends on a thousand variables. But average people think getting rich off stocks is about asking people who are "in the know" and got a hot tip on putting money into the next Amazon when it was at $7. No one knows. But average people think some people know. They're fools. Joseph is nowhere near that stupid.

We missed you, please post more videos, they are valuable, thanks!

He doesn’t say it’s easy to follow certain criteria toward building wealth, he mentions it’s easier said than done. Even Buffet says the average investor has an advantage over hedge fund managers, many reasons as to why that is but what gets in the way for most common investors are emotions, lack of consistency, and not continuing researching your company’s cash flow and management. If you don’t have the time or the discipline then etf’s are the way to go, jc has mention that as well, but starting small investment on picking individual stocks then you will make mistakes, learn and continue on learning from those mistakes, increases ones odds of success. Ppl quit too soon or are afraid to invest do to fomo and fud promoted on social media. One also has to accept realistic returns, no 100x here but 10% to 20% over long term average in yearly returns are reasonable without full time dedication in investment and still go to school or take advantage of a side hustle. Overall, JC is putting his money on the line while showing his gains and losses through his strategy and goal that it may be possible for most to beat market if one sticks to a good and firm thesis. There’s a chance he is wrong and lose most of his gains from the past few years, therefore proving no average investor can beat the market.

You are right. Most people will not get market beating results picking individual stocks. Using index funds is great way to build wealth but use funds that charge tiny annual fees. Tiny as in 0.5 percent or less. One of Joseph's primary points in that video is that you cannot meet the market return if you get scared when the market goes down and sell your investments and sit on the sidelines until the market starts to go up again. Continuing to invest even when the market is going down gets market results.

What do you think about David Giroux who manages the TRowePrice Capital Appreciation Fund (PRWCX)?
He’s been Morningstar of the year several times.
His fund is a balanced fund that crushed its peers 16 years in a row.
Its equity allocation has beaten the s&p500 by 4% since he took over the fund in 2006.

Another active and famous fund is Vanguards Wellington Fund (VWELX) and Dodge&Cox Balanced Fund (DODBX).
These funds have dove well for their investors for almost 100 years.

My thought, is if you can find an active manager who can beat the index, then stick with him until he retires.
Thoughts?

Could you do a video discussing these popular, large, active funds?

I agree with the video, the problem i have with Joseph Carlson is that he isnt very transparent about his performance. Occassionally he will show actual performance against the S&P 500, but all the video thumbnails give a false perception of his performance by just showing an ever growing portfolio value number that is more a result of adding Patreon income to the portfolio than actual growth. It feels disingenuous to me. He should be showing his percent on return compared to S&P in the thumbnails instead.
He is following the Buffet model, where diversification is a hedge against ignorance. Its way too much work for me, i will just follow an index fund ;)

I spend a lot of time researching individual stocks but I do not regard the time "work". Rather its a hobby where I get the chance to dive into analysys and cultivate the neardy side of my personality. I know that I will likely end up underperforming, compared to spending more time on work and simply investing in a good index ETF, but that is ok, as long as I do not kid myself into believing anything else. I simply like owning shares of companies and to reflect on their future and the developments in society and markeds in general. I have been investing for 3 years and have underperformed sligthly but am not too sad about it, as I also feel Im learning a lot. I do not gamble with my future so have the majority of my pension funds in 2 passive funds simply following the marked.

Yes, it is possible to outperform the market for an individual investor. Joseph Carlson is right. But not because he says so, Peter Lynch did. But what does Lynch know about the stock market.

Huge dislike, lost a subscriber.

I had never heard of JC, will check him out. As someone with 20+ years of experience in the market I would like to suggest an alternate approach. I started out like you mostly in index funds, but over the years have turned into a trader. I would not have achieved financial independence early with your approach. Please watch interviews with Guy Spier. He explains it clearly. Sit in your cave safe like a cave man and eat saved up fruits and nuts most of the time. When good game comes close by and you are sure the tigers are not nearby, run out and hunt and get back in your cave. In other words, market time. The expected value of a 60:40 portfolio is going to be lower than market return, but with lower volatility. Don’t rebalance often, such a massive waste. I rebalanced in 3 steps coming out of the COVID crash. Much better returns when you wait for a massive correction to get out of your bonds and go 100% stock and then return back to the cave, i.e., go back to 60:40 or some such after a massive run up. Also, risk tolerance varies through life. When you are out of work, lower tolerance, when you have paid off your house, higher tolerance etc. Definitely be adaptive and take advantage of market seasons rather than sitting in index funds all the time. Fund managers can’t do it, so you shouldn’t even try is a lame argument. They have investors who can get them fired, so they run with the crowd to avoid being blamed. You only have to answer to yourself.

I tend to agree that it is extremely hard for individual investors to outperform, which is why i am a low-cost index fund investor myself. However, small time investors have advantages to hedge funds or big investors, which Warren Buffet likes to emphasize a lot.
First of the available universe is bigger, professional investors don't really care about a 100M market cap company, since it doesn't move the needle in any way.
Secondly funds must deal with money withdrawals which forces them to sell at inopportune times and other annoying actions to manage their client's wellbeing. They often must "hug the index" for their clients not to leave. You can read about these drawbacks of professional money management in a lot of investment books, the latest one i read was "richer, wiser, happier" by William Green, a definite recommendation from me.
And the list goes on. So, in my opinion, if anyone is to outperform the index by being a kind of "quality value investor" a lá Warren Buffet it would be a small-time investor with the largest available universe. However, this would be a full-time job and not guaranteed to work, so in the end not worth it for most people and definitely not worth it for someone with a job.
Btw. sorry for my grammar, before anyone ridicules me, i am not a native English speaker, but still like to write my own paragraphs instead of using ai translators :D

I like Joseph's strategy, but you made some good, interesting points. My only issue is that you make increasing your income sound easy. It's definitely not. But it is low risk, like you said

Just a question, are you stupid?? If I could make more income why would I bother with investing in stocks? You’re just stating the obvious

Why your condemnation of individual investors because fund managers suck doesn't make sense:
- Funds may have a position size cap of 10% or less meaning they can't take concentrated positions and are forced to continually sell off their winners.
- Funds often have a specific region, sector or market cap that they have to invest in, whereas individuals can invest as they see fit.
- Funds have uncontrollable and unpredictable in- and outflows of cash, meaning that they can not make intelligent exits and entries despite their talent, and are at the whim of retail sentiment that often wants to buy when things are expensive and sell when things are cheap.
- Most funds are too large to be able to invest any significant portion of their portfolio in small or mid caps, which individuals have total access to.
- The underperformance you cite is likely after management fees that individuals do not incur. But I can't check because you don't cite your sources.
- Some funds are not even meant to outperform the market which skews the data. Some are more focused on stability or dividends. Which also begs the question, does this data even take into account distributing funds?
- Their incentives aren't aligned with their clients because they get their fees regardless, whereas an individual is obviously in line with their own interests.
- Large fund clients may wield pester-power to influence the funds actions negatively or have things done as they see fit, even if it goes against the analysis of the fund managers. Money talks.
- Funds can only be run by a single manager for so long, eventually they switch, which can affect the performance in, for example, a 20 year time span. While ultimately, if you have the time to manage your own portfolio, you always have yourself to rely on. This obviously is a condemnation of funds from me as well, because management switching is inevitable and can ruin your returns, but this can't be extrapolated and used as a critique of individual investors.
- Funds these days often have to follow ESG and can't invest even when they see an opportunity, whereas individuals can.

Also, most individuals performing poorly is because they are idiots. They invest in what's popular, meme stocks, or completely at random with no analysis. It's not fair to compare throwing shit at the wall and real investing.

Good dose of reality here. It is kind like gambling and knowing that the very best sharps or full time handicappers only beat the spread ab 54% of the time ..over longer time periods. I do feel that indiv stock inv shld be a smaller portion of portfolio and it is a lot of fun. Losing money or gaining less than mkt rtns is not fun though. You need to really learn to evaluate fair value of a co and buy low but that f.v. estimate is based on FCF which is based on a ton of variables. Not easy, but feels good to think u have an edge. That is a rush. And then there is the trader side...that is a constant rush but most of them have problems over time I think. Some succeed. Reality can really be boring. I likenmy plan ...do it on the side w smaller portion of portf always going top quality co.s at good margin o safety. Also, one note w fund mgrs...they do have to do bigger transactions and that can be a lil more challenging vs joe schmo investor's freedom, but the fund mgrs do have a ton of tools at their disposal I guess. Boring wins over time. Well, you need to hold the world market over time and also be smart w spending and inest in yourself.

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This reading off the script format is cringe

Great video! I’m glad to see you disagree with his takes in a respectful way and provide evidence to back your claims. I am a JC fan, but I completely agree with your thesis. I would also like to add that he has a Roth IRA account for if things ‘go wrong,’ which essentially consists of just index funds and bonds.

Sorry mate, I've been monitoring Joseph carlson . That fella is transparent, and week in week out h has been consistent. His picks are also spot on .

what if you copy exactly what Buffet invests in or Terry Smith....don't they have a track record of beating the market?

I think for most people an ETF is perfect but if you have the time to learn and study then stock picking is a path worth looking in to.

I only did the S&P 500 my first year of investing at 18 and im now 21. In that time i learnt a lot and now a lot of my portfolio is indivisual stocks, which so far, i have been beating the market by a good margin.

Buy companies, not asset classes.

Here is my thinking.
(1) buy a moat
(2) buy consistent increased EPS
(3) buy consistently increasing dividends
(4) buy consistent stock buy back companies
(5) buy pre-splits
(6) buy stupid drops like the GL short attack
(7) buy stupid lows like POET at $1.03
(8) buy American stocks
(9) don't short or play puts and calls, just buy stupid drops
(10) don't follow the herd by selling great stocks in a down market.

I recommend listening at 1.25x speed

I beat the market. For 2 years out of 10 lol

So buy voo and sit back and watch the next bear market eat away at it for 10
Years.

Sorry Bro Joseph Carlson is very good I like his advice

Joseph Carlson is a good man.

Joseph is smiling your ass bro, just take down the video

Summary - Way to increase gains= get a better job.

Just buy Microsoft. There's some nice 20+ year data and gains. Destroys the market. It was a household name in the 90s and still is

Joesph picked Texas Roadhouse, Netflix, Apple........ he picked the best stocks. The more money he makes, the probability of continuing to pick the best stocks will drop. You can only get lucky for so long. Joesph studies what the fund managers pick and he picks from that list. He is not picking ipos.

In my opinion, the part where you try to undermine Joseph's strategy is completely wrong, I suggest you to do more research before saying stupid things. However in the part where you recommended us to focus on career, that is spot on. Therefore you would be better of focusing on that field in which you are truly helpful.🎉

I have learned from Joseph, but I think you are fundamentally correct. when you beat the mkt for 2 years you think it is possible, but over the long term most really brilliant people don't.