8 Reasons House Prices ARE Collapsing in 2024

I think you're a socialist Charlie. All this 4 million people in destitution ... why wouldn't they be ? What have they ever done to not be in destitution. That's not a sign of a failing economy, he other 56 million could be doing very well.

you most definitely can sell a house quickly using web3 and blockchain technologies. I agree we can't do it yet, but we will.

35% nominal falls from summer 2022 peak sold prices or 35% nominal falls from current asking prices, which tend to be 15-20% higher than the summer 2022 peak selling prices? I'm seeing asking prices being reduced by 5-10% in my area, but from initial asking prices that are far higher than the same properties would likely have fetched 18 months ago.

Nothing is collapsing while net immigration is running at 750K+ per year. Demand is exceeding supply by a large margin.

People just will not listen....I have two friends trying to sell enormous houses....overpriced and on the market for a year! When I tell them to watch your work or explain anything to them, they just say ' I am not giving it away' drives me insane.

I read somewhere that more foreign buyers are coming in to take advantage of lower prices?

The economy would have to take a nose dive before prices collapse- you only have to look at the rented sector to understand demand

I’m a lodger and the chap wanted to sell 4 bed, he looked at Rightmove and he saw it was 895k, he was very sure he would get at least 850k. He got an agent in and got told he would get 700k at the best, but I know he would not get close to 650 as he hasn’t one anything to it to make it sellable. He got advised to rent it at 2500 but as a renter I know he will not get that rent as he needs to make it more energy efficient by changing windows, new kitchen, bathrooms, massive declutter the garden as it looks like a damp site, change kitchen doors to fire doors in the kitchen, smoke detectors, make the front entrance better as its full of mud, change front doors as they are not closing properly and paint. He needs to spend more money to make it more renter friendly and up to standard with new landlord rules. He doesn’t want to sell to get the low price and he doesn’t want to spend to make it more attractive, he doesn’t have the cash to do that. He also doesn’t want to sell but he knows he can’t afford to live in a 4 bed by himself and get lodger all the time. He also doesn’t want to downsize ( which is stupid as his single) 😏

I find in my area 4+ bed houses are not selling and show greatest % discount. semi's are still selling though along with anything under 150k. I relate this to the affordability at present. I'm still holding out for 4 bed detached under 230K.

Great stuff Charlie 👍

yawn

You are better when talking macroeconomics with Stig, he knows his onions.

Need to build more houses on our great continent and more immigration and everything will work out. The economy is great in the protection industry. The politicians have spent 13 million on their own protection and apparently 191 million to protect mosques.

Wage growth up, increase in mortgage applications, and property prices rising over the last couple of months. The ONS state that average house prices fell by 0.6% last year, big deal.
These were some of the stats from this video.

Lots of money still buying BTLs. Went to view a flip today and there were 3 offers over from BTL investors. We've offered over guide, but we're flipping and will be able to make a return on it. Lots of money still swashing around.

My opinion is that with companies going bust , unemployment rising every day until 2026 house prices will go lower and lower . I think the BOE will keep the rate at 5.25% until next year . Some friends of ours bought a new build for 410k and now they have lost about 50 to 60k in equity and they are normal working people but they went above their means keeping up with the joneses and they are stressed out of their minds knowing they will have to pay more when they will have to do the remortgage . I am willing to bet against the UK market to be honest . Checked the market right now , a 5 bedroom house in Houghton Regis, Bedfordshire 300k , never seen a 5 bedroom this cheap so it is starting to bite .

Prices pretty much flat for a year and a bit. Id say theyll stay flat for another year. I dont see much decent stock coming on yet and we are in Spring!!!!

Just heard of 100 jobs losses to be replaced with AI in office/scheduling department at utilities company.

Something I find interesting is how many are saying they can't buy because houses in the area they are looking at have gone up.
Here's a thing.
Is the area you are looking at a hotspot of certain area? If so, don't be surprised if others are flocking there too.
Use your noggin and look at other areas rather than being blind. There are tens of thousands of houses available for sale.
Why choose the hotspot? Is it fashionable on tik-toc and insta or something? What reason do you give for not looking in a 5 mile radius and simply just going with "It's the hotpot or nothing" Hardly sensible is it?
There are so many houses for sale. Believe me, hotspots don't stay hotspots forever. A bit like all this open plan living being "IN" at the moment. It will go out again like fashions do along with 3 ovens and 23 seats in the kitchen . Most are added "Debt" and loose value just like a new car does.
My own circumstances will tell you that tale. I bought in an area of which I could afford even though I would have loved a home in one of the lovely villages within a 5 mile radius.
Thing is, as petrol prices fluctuate and public services decline (Especially buses), My ancient 3 story town house in a quiet, yet convenient location within walking distance of Ulverston/LA12 is now worth 25-30% more than the rural cottages I would loved to have purchased when I started out in 1995. I could never have envisaged that happening, but there you go. I've been here almost 30 years. It has it's compromises but it has fit my low income fairly well.
Look at areas you can afford and STOP eyeing up the hotspots where there is high demand because it is the "Fashionable" area to be and then moan because you were outbid.
PS I did view succumb and view several of those rural cottages at the time (Most in poor condition and up for auction) as my head aspired over empty pockets but you soon come back down to earth and look far more realistically to what is affordable.
Good luck everyone! (Sorry Charlie + Alex for my rant)

Welcome to the Cherry Picking Charlie Show where I take a piece of information and give it my own special spin.

Mortgage Approvals Up! But look everyone it is only a tiny uptick from a very low level. Media Guff!
Mortgage Arrears Up! House prices are going to fall because that tiny uptick you can see in the graph is clear evidence mortgage arrears are on their WAY UP!  
Why is the media not reporting this and having me on their show to tell everyone the real picture.

A cursory look at the comments to this video demonstrates that there are many areas where prices are not falling (and may even be rising) so the areas that are falling are going to have to do some very heavy lifting if Clickbait Charlies claim of 35% Nominal falls are to come true.

I get updated from Rightmove in the Brighton area every day and there are at least as many reduced houses as new houses that come onto the market. Estate agents are putting property on at high prices and then, when they haven't sold after a few months, they reduce. Then, after they still haven't sold, they either reduce again, or they sit there for an eternity.

There are an increasing number of properties in the market and the variation in prices is astonishing now. There are horrible houses on the market for a way higher asking price than really nice houses that have been reduced. I saw a house on the market in Shoreham for £1.2 million and there was an identical property 2 doors down on the market for £650k! If you ask me, even the £650k property is substantially overpriced! I've never known a market like this - nobody has!

We are surely in for a nasty crash. In fact, I'm 50 years old and I've never heard so much speculation about a potential house price correction. In fact, there are very few people giving any rational arguments for why the prices will go up, while all the data and metrics that determine affordability strongly indicate that we're heading for a crash. There ain't no smoke without fire!

Real wage increases are also a bit of an unreliable stat. Minimum wages have increased, which means millions of employed people's wages have increased but they are still poor and unable to afford an average house. Additionally, the number of strikes in the NHS etc have pushed their wages up and MPs also just voted to increase their wages (presumably because they think they are doing a good job?).

Added to this, unemployment figures are under reported. There is an increasing number of people in the gig economy and/or are self employed and thus, their reported self assessment doesn't get included into the stats for probably a year!

Off the top of my head, eight points to prove house prices are not collapsing

1) Unemployment getting worse and forecast to be 4.9 % by end of year...however still lowest rate in decades...and 1 in 5 of adults not actually seeking employment

2) BofE may be slow in cutting rates....but mortgage rates are based on forward forecasts and SWAP rates and as all/everyone see downward path these will be 3-4 % over next year.

3) All different & multiple data sources (sure some questionable judgments in all because its difficult to estimate) corroborate and show small falls in house prices with no data to support large decreases.

4) Wages currently increasing at higher rate than inflation.

5) House prices less than value 10 years ago in real terms.


6) Increasing immigration forecast to add to increasing population.

7) Target of 300,000 new build houses not being achieved....and this figure newly determined to need increase of 400,0000 houses to be built.

8) Reductio in BTL properties means less dwellings as BTL's often shared and much less so than purchases.

I’m hoping interest rates get to 7% as a minimum.

Slow the housing market and the car leasing market down.

Stupid people are borrowing money they don’t have to impress people they don’t know.

All these daft people then paying almost zero into a pension.

We are going to see a major problem in a few years when a lot of people get to 65 and realise they have a total pension of £15/20K a year and they still have a mortgage and 2 leased cars on the drive.

Easy way to spot people on lower salaries, they always have 2 expensive leased cars on the drive and everything is branded.

house prices may not rise or "collapse", they may well be held up by value of the currency falling and inflation and just stagnate.

i think its too late because the social damage has been done.

Prices need to drop to pre 2020 values at least. Our children all have high end jobs, deposits and need to live in London area. No chance of buying a 2 bed property. No chance of housing a Familly long term, and the market is so financially distorted and now made even worse by recent interest rate hikes.

Straw Charlie, straw.

You must check these property portals ’property marked SSTC’, on the Land Registry 8-12 months later ..estate agents lie about marking SSTC just to look good . But but really taking it off because of other reasons than being actually sold.

If it’s under offer then you’ve missed out too

What are purple bricks like as a cheaper way to buy home are they faster to?

I’ve been looking to buy for over 3 years and I have just had an offer accepted on a small 2 bed semi in Bedfordshire. The owners bought the property for £237,995 in 2019 and they said that when they had the house valued they had 3 estate agents told them £260k - £270k but the estate agent they went with said it would be more like £245k - £255k and showed them evidence as to why. They listed at £250k and I offered £240k and we met in the middle at £245k. The house had only been on the market for 2 weeks when I first viewed it but they still accepted my offer and cancelled future viewings. I think they found a very good Estate Agent.
I’m not too worried about negative equity because the area is going to have a lot more infrastructure built (a pub, a GP, a railway station with a direct train to London, although we’ll see what they actually deliver on) and I wouldn’t mind living there a little longer if it was a problem.

One reason house prices are holding up is Boris Johnson invited all of Hong Kong in the uk.

House price analysis in terms of nominal values without factoring in inflation is completely pointless - particularly over periods of high inflation. Since the 2007 peak, average UK house prices have fallen by 12% in real terms. This peak was about the same as that reached in 2022 for the UK so again, house prices have fallen in real terms by 12% in just 2 years.

Crashes follow bubbles - there is simply no evidence to suggest we are in a bubble. There has already been a significant real-term fall in house prices and they continue to fall as inflation outstrips the meager house price increases being suggested. The 'crash' has and is happening, confusion of real and nominal values is the source of confusion here but I would not be holding out for some significant market correction unless there were dramatic negative changes in the macroeconomic situation.

House prices only ever go up ahahhaha

Houses are not going down, they are going up , take it from someone in the market right now trying to buy one. Too much demand, not enough houses. You can wish a crash as much as you like yes they are too expensive but a crash is not going to happen the government have propped up the market and created all the conditions for a boom with unlimited immigration

Sadly the majority of EAs don't use the in-depth analysis you do, they're just focussed on their own commission and keeping prices high. Only when they go bust does the penny drop, far too late (for them, sellers and buyers).

This guy is way off. Market clearly been turning up for nearly 6 months. Anticipating rate cuts. Once the cuts starts it will be like petrol on the fire.

Charlie @31.31 you look at number of jobs in isolation, its downward movement, and use this to justify the/a reduction in salaries. This would be the case if the number of people available for work remained steady or increased during this period BUT this is not currently the case, and in the UK we have a 'surplus' of jobs to number of employees available for work, hence the above inflation [real] salary increases we currently see and their impact [especially Service industries] on the economy...companies do not give salary increases 'out of the goodness of their hearts', and certainly not above inflation increases unless they have too, to attract applicants.

Speak to people on the coal face and they will tell you how grim it is . I’m talking estate agents, valuers and surveyors. It’s bad bad bad we. Factor in the job market which is a car crash, Brexit which no one talks about.

They need to build more houses in areas where you have empty buildings, empty shops and offices. Why they sitting empty when we got thousands of people crossing the border?

Charlie, whilst the number/majority of people moving from low fixed rates to current high rates is just about peaking [end of H2 2024] this wont be the 'downward pressure' of distressed sellers, as the govt/BS/Banks mortgage guarantee 12 month anniversary will be July. I can then see a similar repeat effect to the 'fixed higher rate' scenario as the BS/Banks start to foreclose on those customers in arrears, especially if the economy is not 'looking Rosy' and there is a 'rush for the exit' by the BS/Banks getting out before their competitors so that they can get the best price for those properties on their books.

Yeah Wandsworth is bad right now. Sell

The video title is music to my renting ears. Can we knock a zero off housing prices please? The UK could do with some prosperity for a change...

Charlie, I know you are passionate, but you need to calm down. You always sound angry and like you are telling people off

Hey Charlie, it doesn’t help that most Agents and sellers are in denial about over valuing property. We have been looking for property for almost 6 months and have not had any offers accepted. Sellers seem to be chasing down the market rather than accepting a reasonable proceedable offer. I think that we are the minority of common sense as sellers refuse to negotiate sensibly. For example, a seller has a property overvalued by agent in July 23 reduces value by under 5% but seller and agent think that the reduction is correct. Market information in the locality suggests 10% reduction in sold prices with no remedial work. The agents don’t want to lose face with the vendor and the vendor is stuck on a previous value and is unwilling to consider a further reduction. We will keep looking as I think negotiation would be difficult even if the offer were to be accepted.

Thank you 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

What is the deal with the 'modern method auction'? It seems like an excuse to add 4-5% commission to a sale. I can't see any benefit to buyers. I am a first time buyer in waiting and a lot of the cheaper properties in my area are being sold this way. It adds another 6k to 9k to the cost of the property. Will a mortgage cover this as well? Is there a way to circumvent these auctions?

Is Charlie still talking smack 🙄🙄🙄

Comedy gold this is. “Prices are falling”. Nope